REMIT Research team member, FIIA representative Eoin McNamara has published an op-ed on the Brief Eastern Europe platform, discussing signs from the Baltic Sea that would indicate potential actions of hybrid warfare. Recent examples of this being damage caused to a undersea pipelines, often by vessles from unrelated countries.
Author Eoin McNamara explains: “I wanted to explain suspected hybrid interference to undersea infrastructure, especially undersea data connections in light of reported events in late 2024. My goal was to explain the threats to undersea infrastructure, especially a growing number of data connections linking EU and NATO member states in the Nordic and Baltic regions.”
Abstract
On Christmas Day, December 25, 2024, the operators of Estlink 2, an undersea electricity connection linking Estonia and Finland, detected an unusual supply outage. This seemed to indicate a continuing pattern becoming very familiar around the Baltic Sea. Previously, in October 2023, the Balticconnector undersea gas pipeline linking Estonia and Finland was damaged when a Hong Kong-flagged container vessel, NewNew Polar Bear, slammed its anchor into its dimensions. In the same incident, the same vessel was suspected of inflicting damage on undersea data cables linking Estonia with Finland and Sweden, as well as a Russian data cable. Even more recently, in November 2024, a Chinese-flagged vessel, the Yi Peng 3, carrying fertilizer on-route to Egypt from Russia’s port of Ust-Luga quickly became embroiled as the prime suspect for damage to undersea data cables linking Sweden and Lithuania and Germany and Finland respectively. Yi Peng 3 eventually anchored within Denmark’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) but not Danish territorial waters. Under international law, the Chinese government’s permission was required for investigators to board the vessel. Investigators from multiple Baltic Sea states were eventually allowed to do so, but China still denied access to Swedish prosecutors. Yi Peng 3 eventually left the scene in late December 2024.
Full Citation
McNamara, E. M., “Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’ and Hybrid Aggression in the Baltic sea” (2025) In Brief Eastern Europe (curated by G. Beroshvili), January 6. https://briefeasterneurope.eu/p/january-6-2025